The longtime senator from Maine couldn’t overcome a blue wave and the breakdown of her brand. When Sen.-elect Troy Jackson defeated Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, by a comfortable seven-point margin , among those surprised were Jackson’s own voters. Polls leading up to the election gave him an average of nearly 51%. Yet in the final University of New Hampshire poll of the state, only 47% of his own backers thought he would defeat Collins. Collins professed the same prediction two days before the election, noting that she “lagged behind her opponent” in the polls in 2020 but won, even as former President Joe Biden carried the state. There was no repeat Tuesday. Collins’ career will come to an end after 30 years in the Senate . The dynamics that sunk her in Maine in part mirrored dynamics of the national tsunami: issues of affordability, democracy, immigration enforcement and standing up to President Donald Trump. But the incumbent’s loss also involved a breakdown of her brand. Collins’ aspirations didn’t extend to systemic change but emphasized such things as funding piers and firehouses. Jackson’s message was more transformational. Collins’ claims of centrism and bipartisanship had rested on two pillars — the issues of environmentalism and abortion rights — and on her image of independence. This election cycle, those pillars crumbled. Collins was more moderate than most of her Republican Senate colleagues and would occasionally criticize Trump, but her record undermined her self-presentation. Collins had to deal with a ProPublica investigation alleging a pay-to-play scheme involving her and a Hawaii-based military contractor. Collins and her staff categorically denied the accusations. But the Maine media, which some previously characterized as compliant, readily reported on this and other less-than-flattering stories . Collins’ aspirations didn’t extend to systemic change but emphasized such things as funding piers and firehouses. Jackson’s message was more transformational: countering billionaires, a healthcare system for all , etc. Simultaneously, with remarks like, “We can’t eat road salt,” Jackson deftly dismantled Collins’ emphasis on projects for towns at a time when people were more worried about taking care of their family’s food and heating needs. While Collins touted her power as chair of Senate Appropriations, Jackson asked Collins why she didn’t use her power to stop the Trump agenda. Collins and her allies also made derogatory statements about Jackson’s family and his intelligence. Negative personal attacks can backfire in Maine. The Jackson campaign capitalized on classism in a Collins ad portraying the former state Senate president as qualified only to deliver wood by criticizing Collins’ untrustworthiness and her not recognizing Mainers’ needs . A robust fundraising edge was not enough to save Collins either. No doubt this will go down as the most expensive Senate race in Maine, but some of the funds were spent unwisely. For example, Elon Musk’s millions included mailers celebrating Collins helping to create a “conservative Supreme Court” — the opposite of a message designed to appeal to split-ticket voters. As surprising as her 2020 triumph was, it may be that Collins took the wrong lessons from that victory. Collins’ loss imperfectly mirrored what happened to her mentor, former Sen. Margaret Chase Smith of Maine. While visiting Washington as a high school student in 1971, Collins met and spoke to Smith, who was finishing her fourth term in the chamber. But in 1972 Smith lost to Democrat Bill Hathaway — in large part because she seemed out of touch on the Vietnam War , just as Collins this year had seemed out of step on affordability and standing up to Trump. After Smith left the Senate, she advised Collins during the latter’s early political career. Their relationship, however, is ironic, given why Smith remains a Maine political icon. The federal building in Bangor is named after Smith; its lobby features her
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