In November 2016 Donald Trump, smiling, with a thumbs up, stood in front of a typically gaudy golden lift, flanked by Arron Banks, Nigel Farage, Andy Wigmore, and Raheem Kassam. These were the days when being seen with Donald Trump, the man people had openly sneered at the idea of ever being US President, was to be lime-lit at the cutting edge of something new. The so called ‘bad boys of Brexit’ had been vindicated as five months earlier the UK had indeed voted to leave the EU and ‘take back control’. Trump had just beaten Hilary Clinton and was busy making America Great Again. People, especially the left, both here and in the US may have been horrified by both results but this group, and others around them had been dismissed, laughed at, been fought hard, and responded using new methods, strategies, and online campaigning – and they had won. In politics never underestimate the addictive nature of over using any methods you’ve adopted when they produce great results. The trick is weening yourself off them when they don’t. Or even better, finding new ones. While we are at it, that’s a very good summation of the whole Boris Johnson experiment. On Tuesday evening this week, Nigel Farage, told viewers of his GBNews show that he had a hunch, based on his experience of the US Republican’s strategic skills, and campaigning methods that although polls, and commentators were predicting Trump’s party was about to suffer an electoral kicking – he believed those commentators were in for a surprise. Arron Banks dismissed a YouGov poll suggesting Democrats ahead in 8 Senate races with a flourish: “ If you believe this you will believe in Fairies… ” Well Arron, Tinkerbelle is sorry you won’t take her calls. Early yesterday we learned Trump’s Republicans did get ‘ smashed ‘ and have lost both the House and the Senate, and there was no big surprise Trump win, and even his excuse “ I wasn’t on the Ballot and if I was, we would have won IN A LANDSLIDE!” won’t stop any Democrats or US journalists trying to shoe-horn the name Donald into the phrase ‘lame-duck president’ Anyone who thinks Trump will accept constraint needs to wobble their head but for those assuming he’ll double down on his unresolved Iranian adventure with more attacks, should recognise as both Trump and his vice-President JD Vance has: “The reason we lost is the war. The President said so last night…any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.” I think on the Right in the UK a similar conversation has been going on since the summer. Whether they like it or not – I can tell you they don’t and are in denial – Reform need a change of tack and a reset of strategy. Our columnist Peter Franklin made the same point about the Conservatives. I think both are worth considering. Even presented with a severe collective case of refusal to look facts in the face, Reform and the Tories are neck and neck in the polls, increasingly with the Tories slightly ahead. The Tories can’t celebrate their glacial rise towards where they were polling in 2024, and Reform should be very worried – not burying their heads – about how far they have fallen in a year. “ Well polls aren’t elections, you got smashed in May, you came third in Makerfield, ITV and Channel 4 are establishment stich ups, Tim Montgomerie was a plant, George Madgwick was suspended, the uniparty is trying to force us out, so much scrutiny it’s disproportionate ….etc etc.” Now I’ve done that for a reason, not to raise a cheap laugh. There’s a serious point here and it’s once again an offer of advice; one I think might apply further than just Reform. Nigel’s beloved tactic for awkward questions, developed from 2024, to the point where expected or anticipated heckling from infiltrators to their Conference got it flashed up on a digital screen, came direct from Trumpian campaign models, it’s pure MAGA playbook, and at first I had a sneaking admiration for them trying it. Copying DOGE was a
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